Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Analyst says I would not be holding stocks at this point

I received this via Email and it may indicate that the 20% Marc Faber correction is very near:

For our dear readers who still have a large stock portfolio, take note of the warning just issued by Richard Russell.  Having followed Russell since 1983, I tell you when he issues a warning, I take it very seriously.  His track record is way too good to ignore:

Warning -- I have applied the "fan-line principle" to the NYSE Composite Index. Here we see three consecutive trendlines violated. According to the fan-line principle, three trendlines are drawn from the same base. When the third fan-line is violated the trend has reversed and turned down. Based on this chart, I would not be holding stocks at this point.

NYA May 23 Index

A piece below from "MarketWatch."  "Is the stock market about to take a 10-year nap? That's the warning coming from fund managers and stock market historians, including Yale University professor and housing guru Robert Shiller.  "Shiller sees stocks gaining between 2 percent and 3 percent during the coming decade. He sees no reason to believe in a resurgence of consumer spending, considering that the real unemployment rate, by his calculation, is 15.9 percent, and housing is headed south again.   "'Even at this point, with the recession technically over, we are in the worst financial shape we've been in since the Great Depression," he told an audience in Las Vegas, reported InvestmentNews.com.   "Shiller's unemployment figure counts unemployed, underemployed, and people forced into early retirement by the economy. On top of all that, consumer confidence is weak and the foreclosure crisis continues to spread, Shiller notes.   "'It worries me because if people don't have confidence, they don't spend money," said the professor, who is best known for the widely cited S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indexes


Sincerely,

David Schectman
Miles Franklin